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Bangkok Rush-Hour Estimator
A 7 km ride on Sathorn at 5 pm Friday in monsoon rain is a different planet from the same ride at 10 am Sunday. Most blogs don't quantify that. This one does.
Inputs
What this solves
"How long does it take from Asok to Silom at 6 pm in the rain?" — the kind of question that determines whether you catch your train to Hua Hin or spend 600 THB on a missed-hotel-night. This tool applies rush-hour multipliers from Bangkok Expressway & Metro (BEM) historical patterns, combined with TMD (Thai Meteorological Department) rain-event adjustment and historical Songkran traffic data (the Expressway Authority publishes these reports).
How to read
- Base speed model: 25 km/h in CBD dry, 17 km/h wet, 10 km/h in heavy rain. Highway 50 km/h dry, 35 km/h wet.
- Rush curve: 7–9 am and 4–7 pm peak. Mon–Fri heavier than weekends. Friday is the worst day for outbound.
- Risk level: combines duration uncertainty with on-time-arrival cost. "High" means take 2× buffer for airport.
Limitations
- Doesn't model sudden political closures (occurs every 1–2 years).
- Expressway congestion can add 30 min during Songkran. We add a festival multiplier but not exact closure map.
- Grab/Bolt can refuse to dispatch in rain — see Grab vs Bolt.
- Long-distance routes (> 30 km) lose accuracy because intercity highways have very different flow.
FAQ
What time is worst in Bangkok?
Friday 5 pm. Friday evening + Songkran week is genuinely the worst, followed by Monday morning 8 am.
Should I trust Grab ETA?
Grab's ETA is usually optimistic by 15–25% in CBD rush. Their algorithm doesn't know about road closures until cars report them.
What about motorcycle taxis (win motors)?
They cut through alleys the car can't. ~60% of taxi time in rush hour but higher risk, no helmet offered consistently, no luggage. Useful for 1 person, daypack only.