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Island Weather Risk
Specific to islands: how often do ferries cancel? Big waves, small operator, slow refunds. This tool gives you the probability per month and the expected buffer night cost.
Setup
What this solves
Whether to add a buffer night in Surat Thani, build a refund backup, or skip the trip.
How to read
- Cancel probability = month × island × operator.
- Buffer cost = expected cancel × buffer night cost × urgency.
- Always check conditions 24 hr before departure — operators post updates.
Limitations
- Typhoons in Sept–Oct are not modeled; one typhoon = total shutdown.
- Operator changes schedule seasonally.
FAQ
Do I get refunded if ferry cancels?
Yes — usually same-day reschedule or full refund. Online bookings (12Go, Bookaway) get refunded automatically; offline pay-at-pier is riskier.
Is flying to Koh Samui safer than the ferry?
Yes, but Bangkok Airways Suvarnabhumi→Samui is 4,500 THB vs ferry 600. Weather cancels flights too occasionally.